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The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to... [Read More]
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There were rumors and whispers of a trade truce between China and the US. Wages domestically grew by the most since 2009, better than 3%... [Read More]
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Unfortunately, for Jay Powell, labor statistics are at best backward looking and often just plain misleading. Can you imagine if the wage data contained with... [Read More]
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There's no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is... [Read More]
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Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at... [Read More]
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On August 30, 2006, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported preliminary estimates for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter. It w... [Read More]
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R-star is a fiction, which, like term premiums for interest rate decomposition, allows Economists to skate past reality and onto their econometric blackboards. [Read More]
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When the FOMC published the minutes for their November policy meeting, they included an unusually lengthy discussion about federal funds (effective) and IOER. I... [Read More]
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The first central banker to blink wasn't Jay Powell, it was Stephen Poloz. The Bank of Canada has been steadily raising its policy rate like... [Read More]
Is the media data-dependent? Depends, of course, on what you mean by dependent. One year ago, as December 2017 dawned, you couldn't go a day... [Read More]
By the time things got really bad, China's economy had already been slowing for a long time. The currency spun out of control in August... [Read More]
Just like Jay Powell is surely hoping for some help from Mother Nature, the central bankers at the BoJ have to be wishing for more... [Read More]
Too much debt. Deleveraging. The debate over the right size of the credit market isn't going to be solved. Like it or not, the US... [Read More]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Thursday picked right up where we left off Wednesday. The Census Bureau had reported another month suggesting... [Read More]
The US is going it alone. The rest of the world isn't so synchronized like it was, purportedly, in 2017. No matter, at least for... [Read More]
On June 10, 2013, Brazil's central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in... [Read More]
Back in March, the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve stated the obvious. US home construction was stuck near the lowest level in the... [Read More]
Back in March, the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve stated the obvious. US home construction was stuck near the lowest level in the... [Read More]
You never quite know what you're going to get with each monthly update. High frequency data tends to be noisy anyway, more so in the... [Read More]
What has changed in China? Many if not most in the West haven't yet caught on because they can't conceive of where all this might... [Read More]
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